First the good news
Between 1991 and 2011, there were significant increases in years lived from age 65 years with low dependency (1·7 years for men and 2·4 years for women) and increases with for men and women with high dependency.
The majority of men's extra years of life were spent independent (36·3%) or with low dependency (36·3%) whereas for women the majority were spent with low dependency (58·0%), and only 4·8% were independent.
Now the bad news
Assuming that the ratio of people requiring a care homes remains constant then as a result of population ageing it means that an extra 70,000 care home places need to be available by 2025.
You can read the full report in the Lancet online.
As I have explained on numerous occasions, the existing model of care provision is not working (a polite way of putting it). There is not the public funding available to pay for more care facilities and very soon the cross subsidisation coming from private payers will come to an end.
The Lancet figures show that there is going to be a huge demand for care facilities that older people with the necessary wealth with be able to afford. What happens to the others, the majority, I dare to think. Dick Stroud
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